(Reuters) -Major brokerages reiterated their view of a 25-basis-point (bp) interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December after data on Wednesday showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose in-line with market expectations.
Data showed PCE climbed 0.2% in October on a monthly basis, and grew 2.3% annually, matching market expectations. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy items and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, was also in line with estimates.
Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting, released on Tuesday, showed policymakers were uncertain about the outlook for interest-rate cuts and how much the current rates were restricting the economy.
The Fed reduced rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, lowering its benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.50%-4.75% range.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the Core PCE data:
Rate-cut estimates
(in bps)
Brokerages 2024
Dec
UBS Global Wealth 25
Management
Goldman Sachs 25
J.P.Morgan 25
Citigroup (NYSE:C) 50
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the Core PCE data:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Dec’2024 2025 Fed Funds Rate
BofA Global 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Research June)
Barclays (LON:BARC) 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
2025)
Macquarie 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through September 2025)
September
2025)
J.P.Morgan 25 75(throug 3.75% (through
h September 2025)
September
2025)
*UBS Global 25 125 3.00%-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
TD Securities 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 25 100 3.375% (Q4 2025)
(through
June
2025)
Jefferies 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Nomura – 50 4.125% (through end
of 2025)
*UBS Global Wealth 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
Management end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) 25 No Rate 4.375%
Cuts
Citigroup 50 – –
*UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
