A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Threats of fresh tariffs under a second Trump administration continue to unnerve Asian investors, with Japan again – not China – feeling the biggest effect.
There’s already the added weight of a stronger yen, which does not help exports. The currency has been among the few to strengthen against the dollar since mid-November.
The underperformance of automaker shares, in particular, also point to concerns about Mexican factories reminiscent of 2017.
China investors, meanwhile, seem both relieved that the threat of additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods isn’t the 60% levy Trump campaigned on, while also trusting Beijing to ramp up stimulus to cope with any hit to trade.
Although the yuan, Mexican peso and loonie are still hovering near multi-month or multi-year lows, the market consensus 24 hours later is that the tariff threats are likely a bargaining tactic and may not materialise come January.
Trump’s strategy is focused primarily on deal-making.
The Fed is in the spotlight again, with the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge due for release. Minutes from this month’s meeting on Tuesday suggested a cautious approach to rate cuts.
Meanwhile, thin trading will get even thinner as Thursday marks the start of a four-day Thanksgiving weekend for many in the United States.
European stock futures are flat for the UK FTSE and pointing lower for Germany’s DAX and the pan-regional STOXX 50. Sterling and the euro have been oscillating in narrow ranges either side of flat against the dollar.
Britain’s minor trade surplus with the United States potentially makes it better positioned than Europe, which Trump has said will “pay a big price” for not buying enough American cars and farm produce.
On the economic calendar today, Germany and France have consumer sentiment readings.
ECB board member Philip Lane gives introductory comments at a conference in Frankfurt, while Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson gives a talk in Stockholm.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
– Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence
– ECB’s Lane, Riksbank’s Jansson speak
– US PCE price index (Oct)
