Trump’s EV rollback not expected to suppress appetite for critical minerals

(In paragraph 8, corrects North American share of global EV market to 10% from 20%)

By Melanie Burton and Ernest Scheyder

(Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump’s rollback of electric vehicle targets may temporarily slow demand for lithium and other critical minerals, but is unlikely to hamper the mining industry amid surging global EV demand, analysts and industry leaders said.

Trump on Tuesday revoked predecessor Joe Biden’s 2021 executive order that sought to ensure half of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030 are electric. Automakers had been positioning for a jump in EV demand due largely to that Biden move.

Trump’s order caused shares of Japanese automakers, South Korean battery makers and Australian, U.S. and Chinese lithium miners to slip. But even if EV demand cools in the world’s second-biggest auto market, analysts and industry experts expect traction elsewhere to more than compensate.

Trump has planned other regulatory changes to cut off support for EVs and charging stations. He also aims to strengthen measures blocking imports of automobiles and battery materials from China.

“Every time people take away subsidies or benefits … it’s a dent to the demand scenario,” said analyst Glyn Lawcock at Barrenjoey, an Australian investment bank. “(But) ultimately demand will still grow even if the U.S. is a bit slower under Trump.”

Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) said the global transition to EVs was underway, with or without the United States.

“Longer term, I just don’t think it will be an issue on demand,” Antonino Ottaviano, Liontown’s CEO, said on a Tuesday analyst call.

Much of the EV industry’s growth happens in China, accounting for 11 million sales or 65% of the market, compared with North America, which accounts for 10% of the market, Liontown executives said on the call.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world already accounts for 1.3 million EV sales and is growing at 27% year on year, a trajectory that will see it become more meaningful than the entire North American market in less than two years, the Liontown executives added.

That growth potential is something Chinese EV manufacturers are chasing given they are locked out of the U.S. market due to 100% EV tariffs imposed by Biden.

Grid-scale batteries that store days’ worth of electricity are rising in popularity across the world, for example. Critical metals are also used to build many consumer electronics as well as computer servers needed to power the artificial intelligence industry.

Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), the world’s largest lithium company, declined to comment on Trump’s order.

Arcadium, a lithium producer about to be bought by Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) and the International Lithium Association trade group, was not immediately available for comment.

Rio Tinto also declined to comment on Trump’s order, but its CEO Jakob Stausholm told the World Economic Forum on Tuesday that he is bullish on the white metal.

“Lithium demand will probably go up another five times over the next 15 years, so a lot more lithium projects will have to be built,” Stausholm told the forum in Davos, Switzerland, adding that he has owned an EV for more than nine years.

“It’s just a better car” than an internal combustion engine, Stausholm added.

David Klanecky, CEO of privately held battery recycler Cirba Solutions, expects U.S. demand for critical minerals to jump by 2030 due to the demand not just for EVs, but for myriad electronics.

Beyond any target rollbacks, miners said they believe measures to wean Western manufacturers off Chinese supplies will underpin support for their metals.

“We expect measures taken to build supply chain independence from China … to have a much greater impact than the rollback of a formal target for EV sales,” said Darryl Cuzzubbo, CEO of Australian rare earths developer Arafura.

“There is a tipping point looming for electric vehicles at which targets and incentives won’t be required to encourage take-up.”